Monday, February 4, 2013

Fantasy Sleepers: Paul Goldschmidt

So far on our Fantasy Sleepers series, we have covered the rest of the infield:
C   Rob Brantly
2B Matt Carpenter
SS Zack Cozart
3B Lonnie Chisenhall

I had a difficult time finding a first baseman. There's enough to go around in which each team in a 10 team league can have 2 legit first basemen and be very productive. Outside of a handful (I'd stay away from Houston's mess, James Loney and Mitch Moreland can be supplanted by Mike Olt soon), there's solid first basemen around the league. I expect Yonder Alonso and Brandon Belt to improve their power numbers and I originally wanted to do Garrett Jones, since he had a very good year last year. Since I have an irrational favoritism towards Jones, I went with another what I'm going to call 'bargain basement' value in Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt.

I predicted Goldschmidt to be a good value last year. Scouting reports had him pegged with "Light-Tower Power." His minor league numbers are eye-popping: 35 HR's in 2010, 30 HR's in 2011 and he skipped AAA to go to Arizona. He can mash with the best of them. Goldschmidt's first full year in the majors was solid all the way around: .286/20 HR/82 RBI, 64 BB's to 130 K's, an unexpected 18 SB's with a .286/.359/.490 and .850 OPS. Not too shabby. His track record in the minors suggests he's going to rake in the majors. Every fantasy owner will be happy with a .286 average, and he should improve on it, going into the .290s this year. His BB to K rate is not awful (compare with my piece on Zack Cozart), but does leave a little to be desired. He worked 94 walks in 103 AA games in 2011, so his ratio should even out somewhat. Goldschmidt has some better hitters in front of him, especially with Prado presumably in the 2 hole and solid protection in Montero, Kubel and a resurgent Aaron Hill. His power numbers should go back to being closer to 30 HR's. I'm going bold with a .295/30 HR/100 RBI stat-line for Goldschmidt: a lethal and undervalued pick for your team this year.

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