Wednesday, February 13, 2013

30 Teams in 30 Days: Cincinnati Reds

Today, we wrap up the NL Central with a preview of the Cincinnati Reds. So, the Reds had a relatively quiet offseason, outside of acquiring Shin-Soo Choo, of course. The acquisition of Choo, moving of super prospect Billy Hamilton to CF (essentially to replace Choo in 2014) and the trade of Didi Gregorius in the Choo trade surely establishes Zack Cozart at shortstop. Aroldis Chapman, flame-throwing lefty, will be moving to the rotation, hopefully to follow CJ Wilson and Chris Sale in productivity. Jonathan Broxton takes over in the closer's role. So, let's take a look at the Big Red Machine

Starting Lineup
CF Shin-Soo Choo
2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
LF Ryan Ludwick
RF Jay Bruce
3B Todd Frazier
C   Ryan Hanigan
SS Zack Cozart

Another extremely solid lineup. Choo and Phillips are run-making machines for Votto - Frazier. I'm a little worried about whether Ludwick will put up another big season because he tends to go year on/year off (or good even year/bad odd year) but the protection will help him. I'm also excited to see another years worth of improvement from Frazier and Cozart but they must work on plate discipline...big time. Hanigan and Mesoraco are solid behind the plate. No worries about this lineup scoring runs.

Starting Rotation
SP Johnny Cueto
SP Mat Latos
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Homer Bailey
SP Aroldis Chapman

Unfortunately for Mike Leake, he probably gets bumped to the bullpen until Arroyo's contract is up at the end of the year, giving this team young but established starters. Cueto finally worked deeper into games and Latos came through with a big second half by literally pitching the same amount of innings in one less game and allowing fewer runs. I'm skeptical of Arroyo putting up another season like last year's since it was his best since moving to Cincy in 2006. Homer Bailey put it together after years of inconsistency - will he hold up? Lots of upside here but it can all fall apart quickly. How will the Chapman experiment work? Time will tell.

Bullpen
CL Jonathan Broxton
SU Jose Arredondo
SU Sam LeCure
SU Logan Ondrusek
SU Sean Marshall
SU Nick Masset
SU Manny Parra

Masset might not be ready at the start of the year and Leake/Alfredo Simon are bullpen candidates as well. This pen is one of the most underrated in the game (and the NL Central has REALLY good bullpens). Broxton should be fine moving forward but Manager Dusty Baker has many options at his disposal if needed.

I'm a little worried about the 3-5 starters producing how expectations want them to, which is why I have them slightly behind St. Louis and competing with Atlanta for the Wild Card spot.

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