Tuesday, January 29, 2013

3 Dark Horse candidates for NBA ROY (Rookie of the Year) and others who deserve consideration

At this point in the NBA season, there are two front-runners for the Rookie of the Year award: Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis. Davis, the preseason favorite for the award and #1 selection of the New Orleans Hornets (Pelicans?), has been injured a few times this year already but his stats (13ppg, 8 rpg, 2 blocks 1 steal per game and shooting 52% from the field) back up that he is a deserving candidate. His defense is the best of any rookie and he hasn't even begun to scratch the surface of his potential at 19. Lillard, the 6th overall selection to the Trailblazers, has really surprised a lot of people with his poise, leadership and consistent play. At 22, he doesn't have the drooling potential of Davis or others on this list, but he is the best rookie right now and current front-runner at this point in the season. Despite playing the most minutes and being used the most of all the rookies, Lillard has come through with impressive statistics (18 ppg, 6.5 apg, 1 steal and shooting 36% from 3, making 2.5 a game while also shooting 84% from charity stripe). He is the best leader/scorer at the moment, with Davis not far behind. But others are slowly starting to creep their way into the picture and ready to crash the ROY party which currently safely sits just two.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist     SF   CHA 

#3 overall pick to the Bobcats, Kidd-Gilchrist has not had as spectacular a season as Lillard and Davis but is holding his own as a player that can do a lot of things well and help a team win. His play has slowed in recent weeks as he seems to hit a bit of a rookie wall. He's 8th in mpg among rookies but pretty efficient. Averaging 10ppg, 6 rpg, 2apg and a steal and block a game. Nothing to be hugely excited about here, but the 19 yo is a very good rebounder for his position/size and is already an excellent defender. Strong play over the rest of the season can put him in great position to take home the award, but with a weak supporting cast, I don't think he will be able to sway many voters.

Bradley Beal      SG       WAS 

Beal, the 19 yo #2 overall pick to the Wizards, has not seen his sweet shooting stroke translate into success as quickly as many had hoped, evidenced by his current 39% fg percentage, 36% on 3ptm and 79% from ft line. This is a guy who came out of HS destined as the next Ray Allen and with good reason. One of the prettiest strokes I'll ever see. Despite ugly shooting numbers, Beal is still scoring 13ppg, 3 boards, 3 assissts and a steal per game while still netting 1.5 3's per game. Like Kidd-Gilchrist, there isn't anything to drool over, but now that John Wall is back, Beal will have a complete pg to play with (he also didn't have a complete pg in his one year at Florida) and I think the addition of Wall will allow for Beal to have a better 2nd half of the season. He is a more highly touted player and better scorer than MKG and I figure he will do slightly better than MKG in voting. If he really puts it all together and averages near 18ppg with improved shooting numbers the rest of the way, watch out!

Andre Drummond       C      DET  

Of the 3 players, Drummond plays the least and yet has the most upside/potential. Drummond only plays 20 minutes per game due to coach Lawrence Frank trying to limit his talented big man. The #7 overall pick to the Pistons (complete steal) has played phenomenal despite his lack of minutes. In terms of rebounding and blocking, only Anthony Davis even compares to Drummond. On a per 48 minute basis, meaning if the player had played a full 48 minute game all the time, what would he average, which helps make up for minutes per game discrepancies, Drummond dominates Davis in both categories. Rebounds per 48 mins: Davis-12.9  Drummond-17.6. Blocks per 48 mins: Davis-3 Drummond-4. Currently, on 20 mpg, Drummond is averaging 7-7 (ppg and rpg), 2 blocks and 1 steal a game while shooting 60% from the field. If given more time, and I expect he will as he has been the most impressive Detroit big this season so far ( and that's with Greg Monroe on the roster), Drummond will see his stock and statistics skyrocket. If he were to get a comfortable 30 mpg going forward, it would be hard not to imagine this freak athlete putting up 10-10 with 2-3 blocks a game. He is oozing with potential and dominance if he could just get more minutes and is my most likely player of the 3 to upset Lillard/Davis and win this year's NBA ROY.

Others to consider who have major work to do:

Dion Waiters    SG     CLE
According to ESPN's John Hollinger's expanded statistics, Waiters is the most used rookie on the court with a usage rating of 24.1%. In comparison, Damian Lillard, another very used rookie, has a usage rating of 23.1%. Despite his usage and decent stats (14ppg, 1 steal, 2 boards, 3 assists, 1.3 3's per game), Waiters has not been very efficient (like Beal) shooting 38% FG, 32% 3PT and 79%FT from the overall field. Beal is used a little less than Waiters and more highly touted, so he gets the nod. But Waiters, like Beal, can really score and shoot the basketball, but is better suited slashing and driving to the hoop. With Kyrie Irving back in the fold, I don't expect him to draw any consideration for ROY, but strong play and improving shooting can help raise his stock.

John Henson     PF    MIL
Henson is a real dark horse candidate here because he only plays about 13 mpg, stuck behind Ersan Ilyasova at the 4. I had expected the UNC alum would be having a better season by now but he has not seen many minutes as the Bucks are deep at the 4. Despite not playing much, Henson has averaged 6 points and 4 rebounds quietly, not really impacting the defensive side too much (.6 blocks per game). But Henson has the 2nd highest rebound rate among rookies behind Drummond (over Davis) and also has the 3rd highest PER (Player Efficiency Rating) among rookie players behind, again, Drummond and Davis, at 17.55. One to watch for but won't contend for ROY.

Andrew Nicholson    PF     ORL
No one knows much about the St. Bonaventure alum, but Nicholson can play basketball. If not for the emergence of Nikola Vucevic, more people might be talking about Nicholson. He doesn't do anything extremely well, averaging  7 ppg and 3 rebounds per game in just 15 mpg. He has seen minutes in bunches with injuries but Glen Davis and Vucevic have kept him from getting any real consistent playing time. Nicholson ranks 6th among all rookies in PER, Value Added ( another statistic from Hollinger that evaluates how much value a certain player adds over replacement value player) and EWA (Estimated wins added, which guages how many wins an individual adds over replacement value player), behind most of the other guys on this list in each category. What most intrigues me about Nicholson is his effective, efficient offense. at 6'8", Nicholson is a little undersized at the PF position but makes up for it by being an excellent shooter for a big man. Between Davis, Drummond, Henson and Nicholson, Nicholson is the best offensive player by far and is the most polished. More minutes at the PF position would truly allow for Nicholson to realize his offensive potential and allow him to become more skilled rebounder. Not likely a ROY candidate but one to watch out for as he will be a solid, solid player for years to come.

Follow me on twitter: @jaym12391                or contact me at jaym12391@comcast.net

No comments:

Post a Comment