Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Why a Jurickson Profar/Oscar Taveras Trade Makes Total Sense

This is a bi-product of a Twitter war last night, but it's the hottest baseball internet rumor: Top prospects Jurickson Profar of the Texas Rangers and Oscar Taveras in a one-for-one trade deal. Now, Mr. Donny Finkle examined a possibility of adding some more players in our earlier post if you'll just scroll below. But, I'm going to address the one for one deal. Now, Mr. Jay Mongillo, a contributor here at Florio Facts disagrees with me on this trade. I say it makes sense, he says no. While Jay knows his baseball inside and out, he's clearly wrong here. And you can tell him so on Twitter @jaym12391. I'm here to prove him wrong and why I'm right. Let's start with some background info:

  • Profar is the Rangers' top prospect, a shortstop. He was named the #1 prospect in baseball by Baseball America for this year. He is a potential superstar, as is Taveras.
  • Taveras is the top prospect in the Cardinals organization.  He's the #3 prospect according to Baseball America. You can see the list here: Baseball America Top 100. These are arguably the top 2 organizations for player development, i.e. they have the best systems/players overall. So, why does a trade work perfectly for both teams? Let's explore
Why it works for the Texas Rangers

We know that the Rangers consistently have an excellent offense each year, and they have locked up a number of their key players, mostly in their starting staff, but particularly Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus. The Rangers also have an incredible farm system, with Leonys Martin playing CF this year and 3B/1B Mike Olt just around the corner. This is also why they need to make this trade. Profar's blocked at the MLB level by the guys with two long-term contracts: Kinsler and Andrus, with Andrus Extended for 8.  Playing Profar at 2nd moves Kinsler to first base and blocks Mike Olt's easiest path to the majors, since he is blocked by Adrian Beltre. Trading Profar for Taveras keeps first base open for Olt and if Berkman leaves as a free agent, Mitch Moreland at DH. What about the OF? Martin and Nelson Cruz have 2 spots locked down. David Murphy (a Florio Favorite) is a free agent at the end of 2013. Replace him with Taveras and spend the money on much needed starting pitching! Look at this lineup in 2014:
  1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
  2. Elvis Andrus, SS
  3. Adrian Beltre, 3B
  4. Nelson Cruz, RF
  5. Mike Olt, 1B
  6. Mitch Moreland, DH
  7. Oscar Taveras, LF
  8. AJ Pierzynski (if he's brought back), C
  9. Leonys Martin, CF
Nice. Younger and better.

Why it works for the St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals breed players like its nobody's business. Look at the recent starters: Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, David Freese, Yadier Molina...that's just the offense! Oscar Taveras and 2B Kolten Wong are right around the corner. So, why the trade? Well, shortstop is a bit of a weakness. Pete Kozma, current SS, kinda sucks. His MLB batting average is very misleading: he's a guy who hit mostly in the mid 200s, around .240/.250 in the minors. A team like the Cardinals can have excellent hitters everywhere. Sure, Carlos Beltran is an FA at the end of 2013 and Taveras can easily replace him in RF. But, the Cardinals can replace an old Beltran and a poor Kozma with a young, talented Profar and playing Matt Adams at 1B everyday. Adams, we know can crush MLB pitching: Matt Adams Stats. Moving Allen Craig to RF would make this offense better. They can also start Wong at 2B and play Carpenter as a super sub everyday or trade either of them for more younger SP's to go with Shelby Miller and eventually, Trevor Rosenthal. Look at this lineup:
  1. Jon Jay, CF
  2. Jurickson Profar, SS
  3. Matt Holliday, LF
  4. Allen Craig, RF
  5. David Freese, 3B
  6. Matt Adams, 1B
  7. Yadier Molina, C
  8. Matt Carpenter, 2B or Kolten Wong, 2B
Wow. How do you stop that lineup? Simply, you don't. 

This makes so much sense, it's ridiculous. Teams can replace top prospects in a surplus area with other top prospects in a weakness area. The teams get deeper and open up lineup spots for other talents like Mike Olt or a guy who can clearly hit MLB pitching in Matt Adams. Either way, these teams have loaded offenses and can get even better.

Debate me on Twitter @jmflorio and check out Donny and Jay's posts.

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