Thursday, April 18, 2013

All Aboard the Zoilo Almonte Train: A look at the Yankees AAA Outfield

Outside of Brett Gardner, the Yankees haven't had a homegrown, regular starting OF since Melky Cabrera, a long-term one since Bernie Williams (unless you wanna count Hideki Matsui, but I'm not going to).  Needless to say, the Yankees could have a potential OF of all homegrown players down the line. Three of the top 5 NYY prospects are OF's Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott and Tyler Austin. They are a little further down the road, though, with Williams in A ball and Heathcott and Austin at AA Trenton.

With that being said, the Yankees have an outfield of possible MLB contributors at AAA Scranton: Melky Mesa, Thomas Neal and Zoilo Almonte. These three players have their fair share of supporters and detractors. Needless to say, on one of them, I am a detractor. One of them I believe can be a solid MLB contributor and one could be in the Yankees OF starting sooner than later. The article's title does give it away slightly, but we'll deal with that as it comes. Let's explore these three players.

Melky Mesa
Mesa has slowly worked his way through the system, and at 25, needs a breakthrough soon. Mesa's also got some intriguing qualities which have enticed their fair share of fans. He's developed some decent power, averaging 18 home runs a year since 2009 and 22 stolen bases a year as well. Mesa also has good range in the OF and a very good arm. So: power, speed, defense, arm - why is he my least favorite of the three? There are a few trends heading in the wrong direction. His batting average sits lower than his ability because of a high strikeout rate (33.4/28.9/33.4/25.7 2009-2012) and a declining walk rate which is already low (51 walks in 2009 - 44 - 39 - 36 in 2012).

If the Yankees wanted Drew Stubbs (literally the best MLB comparison), they could have traded for him themselves. Mesa is organizational depth and a great candidate in a package to clear 40-man roster depth.

Thomas Neal
Not familiar with Neal? Don't blame yourself. Neal was picked up after the Indians released him, rather surprisingly. If I had to place Neal as a hitter for an MLB comparison, it would be Martin Prado. Neal does not a standout in any one area, but does a little bit of everything well, which is why I'm surprised he did not get favored as the back-up OF over Ezequiel Carrera last year. And they could use him now, with Bourn out. A Prado comparison is not a negative connotation: he's hit for solid averages in all levels, he's got a little pop in his bat, but will be closer to a 12-15 HR a year guy, good plate discipline, no platoon split and can steal a few bags. His defensive prowess leaves a little to be desired, but his arm is solid.

I think Neal could be a solid starter if he gets the chance, but he deserves a shot as the #4/RH bench bat. At least his career is not dead in the water like Ben Francisco's.

Zoilo Almonte
I'm a little higher on Zoilo than others, so place me on the Zoilo bandwagon. He's been a spring training star the last few seasons, which is one reason why the Yankees front office might really dig him. At least Joe Girardi and staff have gotten a good look at him the last few years. GM Brian Cashman projects him as an everyday RF, and Zoilo had put a really nice 2012 to promote him to AAA this year: .277/21 HR/70 RBI/15 SB. What appeals to me about Zoilo is not only his awesome name (at least you can't confuse him with that other Zoilo), but he is a switch hitter. He's better from the left side, ironically, against righties and unlike other switch-hitters, but it keeps him in the lineup everyday.

Defensively, Zoilo's arm is his best quality. He can play all 3 positions, but I think he's best in RF at Yankee Stadium. Almonte's biggest downside is his plate discipline is weak: his walk rate and K's were heading in the right direction but dipped in 2012, i.e. more K's, less BB's. But....so far in 2013, he has a whopping 13 BB's (he had 25 ALL LAST YEAR) and if he keeps his K rate steady, over 450 at bats, its a solid 85 K's. Not too bad. I was trying to think of an MLB comparison, and I think Nick Swisher is probably the best: but with a little more speed and a little less power. If he develops that plate discipline, he'll have a fine career, hopefully in pinstripes.

Debate me on Twitter @JMFlorio

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