Saturday, March 2, 2013

30 Teams in 30 Days: Tampa Bay Rays

Fernando Rodney put together a record setting year. He had the lowest ERA of any pitcher ever for a single season at 0.60. He lowered his walk rate, increased his strikeout rate and closed 48 games. That's not happening again. I'm saying his ERA quadruples to a whopping 2.40, which is still great. The Tampa Bay Rays seem to make some sort of splash, and GM Andrew Friedman did so again, shipping out Wade Davis, James Shields and a prospect in 2 trades for Yunel Escobar, and propects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery. Not too bad. Tampa finished third last year, and I'm predicting that again. Let's take a look:

Starting Lineup
CF Desmond Jennings
SS Yunel Escobar
RF Ben Zobrist
3B Evan Longoria
LF Matt Joyce
DH Luke Scott
1B James Loney
2B Kelly Johnson
C   Jose Molina

On paper, better than in the last few years. I like Jennings a lot: he's got a lot to offer as a hitter and he should be fine defensively in CF. But, last year was a pretty bad setback. He should (and must) step it up moving forward. Escobar adds a solid AVG guy to the top of the lineup and will not strike out a ton, as long as he and Luke Scott aren't jerks in the clubhouse. I don't understand the Scott signing; he's been pretty bad the last 2 seasons and will probably be bumped once Wil Myers gets promoted. I'm personally not a Zobrist fan, I don't understand the big deal about him, what's so great? In terms of positional flexibility, he's a perfect Maddon-ite. I do like Longo and Joyce. I think Joyce gets a little closer to 2011 than 2012 and Longo will produce when he plays: he's an elite player. I'm worried about the bottom of the lineup. Loney is the epitome of how not to improve with each year; maybe he has something left. Johnson has turned himself into an Adam Dunn type: three true outcomes of BB/K/HR. And Molina can't hit. This lineup can be exploited for sure.

Starting Rotation
SP David Price
SP Jeremy Hellickson
SP Matt Moore
SP Jeff Niemann
SP Alex Cobb

I think it would be a smart idea to trade Niemann (there was a Colorado/Tampa trade rumor at one point) because they have so much depth here. Price is a perennial Cy Young candidate. Hellickson stepped it up in the second half but he needs to work into games more. Moore was a slight disappointment as a rookie, but if the second half of 2012 is an indicator, he'll pitch closer to a 3 ERA than 4. Cobb is a solid back-end starter. It might be a smart idea to trade Niemann and free up a spot for Chris Archer: he's another strikeout type. This is a great rotation, young and talented with depth.

Bullpen
CL Fernando Rodney
SU Kyle Farnsworth
SU Joel Peralta
SU Jake McGee
SU Cesar Ramos
SU Brandon Gomes

I'm a little skeptical about this bullpen's performance. All of these relievers have been maddeningly inconsistent in years past. Sure, Rodney, Peralta and McGee were exceptional, but it's the exception, not the norm. I would expect more of the norm, not the exception.

I'm saying this is a 3rd place team in a competitive division. This rotation is certainly fantastic, but I'm worried about the lineup and bullpen. It's just enough to keep them out of the playoffs.

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