We're entering the home stretch, folks. So far, we have examined 5 of the 6 MLB divisions. My predictions so far:
NL East: Washington
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: Los Angeles
NL Wild Card: Cincinnati vs. Atlanta
AL West: Oakland
AL Central: Detroit
We finally reach the AL East. Time for some serious negative feedback. Last year, the Orioles surprised most of baseball by not only securing a 93 win season, but a Wild Card birth, winning the 1 game play in and beating the Yankees to get to the ALCS. Lots of improvements were made on the offense, but the pitching staff looked vastly better after changeover from 2011. So, can Baltimore repeat? No. See why:
Starting Lineup
RF Nick Markakis
SS JJ Hardy
CF Adam Jones
C Matt Wieters
1B Chris Davis
3B Manny Machado
LF Nolan Reimold
DH Wilson Betemit
2B Brian Roberts
Again, getting creative with a lineup here. Markakis is more suited to the 3 hole, but look at these stats: in about half the games last year he batted 1st and put up this stat line: .335/5 HR/28 RBI with an OPS nearly .100 points higher. Hits AVG drops to .256 in the 3 hole. If it works, don't mess with it, right? I like Hardy and Wieters to rebound in the batting average departments, getting closer to the .270 range more expected from them. Jones has turned himself into the superstar the Orioles expected from him: he'll produce a similar season again. I feel like Davis will continue to get exposed: I buy the power like everyone else, but his plate discipline will keep him closer to Adam Dunn than Joey Votto at the plate. Now, I have concerns about the bottom of the lineup. Machado is talented enough to move to the next level, but we should see a full season from him before anointing him the next superstar slugger. Reimold is very talented, but he can't stay healthy. I'd rather see him over Nate McLouth's awfulness. Betemit should produce close to last year and who knows what happens at 2B. Lots of things need to go right, but plate discipline, consistency and injuries still allude their success.
Starting Rotation
SP Jason Hammel
SP Wei-Yin Chen
SP Miguel Gonzalez
SP Chris Tillman
SP Steve Johnson
I'm not buying this rotation 1 iota. Simply put, Hammel and Chen are 3-4 starters on average teams. They put together good seasons, and I think Chen can be a solid starter, but Hammel will likely revert to his 09-10 form. Is anyone buying Miguel Gonzalez? Hell no. Can you say flash in the pan? I can. Flash in the pan. Steve Johnson's minor league record suggests he's also going to revert closer to a 4 ERA. Positives? I think Chris Tillman put it all together. I also hold out hope Jake Arrieta puts it together: he's got electric stuff if he can harness it. Matusz and Britton would be better in the pen. They do have 2 great pitching prospects in Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, but until they replace Gonzalez and Johnson and perform, I'm not buying this rotation.
Bullpen
CL Jim Johnson
SU Pedro Strop
SU Luis Ayala
SU Darren O'Day
LHS Troy Patton
SU Brian Matusz
I do like this bullpen a lot, though. I am admittedly a huge Jim Johnson fan and he was fantastic as a closer. Strop and Ayala were solid 7-8 guys and O'Day put it all together. I like Patton and Matusz out of the bullpen a lot. Baltimore has had success moving guys to the pen from the rotation, I think it happens again. I do not any qualms with this part of the team, but the bullpen loses more games than wins them.
Baltimore, for a 93 win team, had only a +7 run differential.....over the whole season. AND, that's because they went on a tear in September to make the playoffs. A lot of luck went into this team, including a record setting W-L record in 1 run games, which means the offense is good, the bullpen is good and the starting pitching stinks. If your starting pitching stinks, you go nowhere. I think the other teams are better, period. Baltimore is competitive, but a 5th place team this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment