Of course it could happen, but the real question is whether it should happen. This is where I find myself disagreeing with both Justin and Donny on this subject. For the record, I never said the trade wouldn't make some sort of sense. St. Louis has some need for a MI and Texas has some need for an OF. Why not just swap uber-prospect Profar, a shortstop, for uber-prospect Taveras, a corner outfielder?
Both Justin and Donny pointed out that Texas has no opening for Profar (blocked by Andrus) and St. Louis has no opening for Taveras (blocked by Beltran) currently. St. Louis has some need for a SS and Texas has some need for an OF. The thought is that by trading Profar for Taveras, St. Louis solves its SS situation and uses its roster flexibility (mainly, moving Allen Craig to RF and putting Matt Adams at 1st assuming Carlos Beltran is gone after this year) to fill out the rest of their starting lineup. On the other hand, Texas ships out a player that they have no current room for and acquire a corner OF in Taveras who can replace someone in the Rangers outfield.
One problem I have with the trade is that both teams don't have a dire need and have enough roster flexibility to overcome any weakness. The idea that Texas needs an OF and St. Louis needs a SS is being hyped up too much. Right now, Texas is in fine shape at outfield with Cruz, Martin, Murphy and Gentry. St. Louis has an OK middle infield with Carpenter, Kozma and Descalso all playing 2B or SS and also have 2B prospect Wong. Kozma and Descalso are good fielders with suspect bats, while Carpenter is turning into a pretty decent player. All 3 have under 800 MLB at-bats, so I think it may be a little early to give up on any of them. But if the Cardinals had Profar, he would be the starting SS over all 3. If Taveras was on the Rangers, he wouldn't have an opening due to Texas having a solid OF. As Justin noted, Murphy is a FA at the end of the year, so Taveras could potentially fill in if Murphy did leave. But we don't know what the Rangers future plans are. They could resign Murphy and keep their OF in tact for a few more years or they could sign another OF, look internally for an OF or in this case, trade for another OF.
Another problem I have is that in a couple of years, St. Louis could find themselves needing outfielders and Texas could have a need for infielders. For the Cardinals, Holliday is 33 and Beltran is 35. Soon, they are going to need new corner outfielders. Craig can play one of the spots while Adams plays 1B but still leaves them an outfielder short. Again, they can do a number of things to fill that spot, but if they keep Taveras, they would have a really good outfield in Taveras, Jay and Craig. For the Rangers, Andrus is 24 and Moreland is 27 but Beltre is 34 and Kinsler 30. It is nothing to panic about but keeping Profar allows for a good amount of potential flexibility if things ever go bad. Beltre only has a few more good years left and could play 3B or DH. Kinsler, if needed, could switch positions and be a 1B, potentially prolonging his career. Profar could play both MI spots and perhaps 3B if he grows a little more. Andrus can play both MI spots.
Ultimately, I think the trade is unlikely. Both Texas and St. Louis are great teams and win-now ball clubs. The Cardinals have at least 86 wins each of the past 5 years and a WS title while Texas has won 87 games or more 4 straight years and have been to 2 WS in the same time frame A more likely scenario is one that involves trading either prospect for a proven commodity, not for each other. One hot rumor going around that I think has a good shot at happening is a trade between the Rangers and Marlins involving Profar and Giancarlo Stanton. That deal nets Texas a proven masher, although it would leave them with little MI depth. But at the same time they would have a great outfield. The Marlins are terrible, so netting a stud like Profar is much needed and cheap as Stanton will demand a large contract soon. Another potential deal that could happen is either the Cards or Rangers dealing their prospects for Rays pitcher David Price. Both would lose their top prospect but in return get an ace that instantly would give St. Louis one of the best staffs in baseball and would give Texas a fierce 1-2 in Darvish and Price.
By all means, a Profar/Taveras deal would be a blockbuster, an interesting trade that everyone wants to see. But it realistically doesn't make sense for each team to just ship their top guy out for another organizations top guy based solely on positional needs. I have to believe the GMs would be more inclined to keep their prospect, that they know more about, than another teams prospect. If either were to be traded, it would need to be for a current MLB guy like Stanton or Price, someone who instantly impacts the ball club and needs no adjustment period.
Feel free to comment and let me know what you think. Check out Justin's and Donny's blogs as well.
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