As I am posting this from my iPhone, I am sitting in the Providence Train Station. For a capital city, this place is tiny. My home station in New Haven looks like Grand Central compared to this. Nevertheless, I am flying out to Arizona on Sunday for a week of Cactus League games with my brother. Really, really looking forward to this. Not just the baseball, but going with my brother. I only get to see him like once or twice a year, so I am really looking forward to it. We're hitting all 10 stadiums in 6 days, so we have a full schedule ahead. Ill be posting updates all week. Happy trails!!
Schedule
Sunday 3/10 - LA Angels vs. KC Royals/Surprise
Monday 3/11 - LA Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers/Phoenix-Maryvale
Tuesday 3/12 - KC Royals vs. Oakland A's/Phoenix-Municipal (Afternoon)
Tuesday 3/12 - LA Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds - Goodyear (Night)
Wednesday 3/13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Mesa (Afternoon)
Wednesday 3/13 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Talking Stick (Night)
Thursday 3/14 - Chicago White Sox vs. LA Angels - Tempe (Afternoon)
Thursday 3/14 - WBC vs. San Diego Padres - Peoria (Night)
Friday 3/15 - Texas Rangers vs. San Fran Giants - Scottsdale (Afternoon)
Friday 3/15 - KC Royals vs. LA Dodgers - Glendale (Night)
Friday, March 8, 2013
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
30 Teams in 30 Days: New York Yankees
FINALLY. It is here. All 30 teams, previewed and reviewed. Today, we finish with my New York Yankees. I'll make it simple to start off with: Russell Martin, Nick Swisher and Raul Ibanez are gone offensively, Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson will miss the start of the season and in their place will be Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner and Juan Rivera/Matt Diaz, most likely. The pitching staff is pretty much intact. Let's examine the 2013 Yankees
Starting Lineup
SS Derek Jeter
RF Ichiro Suzuki
2B Robinson Cano
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Kevin Youkilis
DH Travis Hafner
LF Juan Rivera/Matt Diaz (Curtis Granderson, who'll move up to the 4 hole upon return)
C Francisco Cervelli
CF Brett Gardner
This is the opening day lineup in my opinion. Jeter and Eduardo Nunez will likely switch on and off at SS at the season's opening with Jeter at DH against lefties until his ankle is truly sufficient. I'm not worried about Jeter's bat; he'll be fine and the Yankees are always conservative with injuries and its not like he's Ozzie Smith out there defensively. I did not want Ichiro back; outside of last September, he's stunk since 2011. I would have rather seen a Nate Schierholtz/Scott Hairston platoon at a cheaper cost, and potentially more productive. My biggest problem is the 2 years. 2 years? Why? It's all about the $$, baby! Cano will be his usual beast self and I believe the Yankees will work out an extension with him long term, as well. Tex really has to step it up. He's the cog to the lineup until Grandy's back. Hopefully, the WBC will help him get that bat going. Youk was also not my choice to replace A-Rod, but, if he plays and this new stance works, for one year, I'll deal with it. Hopefully David Adams rakes in the minors and replaces him next year. Hafner is a low risk signing and as long as he stays healthy, I hope he revitalizes himself and launches a few HRs. He should hopefully be better than Raul. Rivera and Diaz will play LF until Grandy is back and whoever is performing better will keep their roster spot. I believe Cervelli wins the catcher's job with his improved defense and his better bat and Gardner has been en fuego during Spring Training: let's hope it carries over. This offense is definitely going to be different and likely less productive, but fingers crossed.
Starting Rotation
SP CC Sabathia
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Andy Pettitte
SP Phil Hughes
SP Ivan Nova
Let me be briefer here: if they're healthy, they're fine. CC and Hiroki are great but just watch their workloads. Andy will get hurt at some point but they have David Phelps to step in. Hughes will try and put together a monster season for that nice $$ in free agency. Nova, according to Stewart, has a new arm slot which'll help his repetition and location. The 2011 Nova would be great. The young depth is nice and Pineda is back post AS break, so this rotation is enough to be solid contenders.
Bullpen
CL Mariano Rivera
SU David Robertson
SU Joba Chamberlain
SU Boone Logan
SU David Aardsma
LHS Clay Rapada
LR David Phelps
A very solid bullpen indeed. Mo's back and healthy and his arm is just fine, which is what matters. Robertson is an elite set-up man. Joba will look for that $$ as well, so he will want to produce, as will Boone Logan, also a FA, as is David Aardsma. Money motivates, that's for sure. Rapada reestablished himself as a quality lefty specialist and Phelps was solid as the swing man. He pitched to an ERA under 3 as a reliever. The Yankees have a ton of bullpen depth in the minors, particularly with Chase Whitley and top prospect Mark Montgomery on the way.
I'm thinking second place and a Wild Card birth is an order. I think Toronto's improved themselves to win the division if healthy but a lot of people are counting the Yankees out. It's important to realize the Yankees lost some important offense, but gained better role players and contact hitters while retaining the same bullpen and a rotation who could be better this year.
Starting Lineup
SS Derek Jeter
RF Ichiro Suzuki
2B Robinson Cano
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Kevin Youkilis
DH Travis Hafner
LF Juan Rivera/Matt Diaz (Curtis Granderson, who'll move up to the 4 hole upon return)
C Francisco Cervelli
CF Brett Gardner
This is the opening day lineup in my opinion. Jeter and Eduardo Nunez will likely switch on and off at SS at the season's opening with Jeter at DH against lefties until his ankle is truly sufficient. I'm not worried about Jeter's bat; he'll be fine and the Yankees are always conservative with injuries and its not like he's Ozzie Smith out there defensively. I did not want Ichiro back; outside of last September, he's stunk since 2011. I would have rather seen a Nate Schierholtz/Scott Hairston platoon at a cheaper cost, and potentially more productive. My biggest problem is the 2 years. 2 years? Why? It's all about the $$, baby! Cano will be his usual beast self and I believe the Yankees will work out an extension with him long term, as well. Tex really has to step it up. He's the cog to the lineup until Grandy's back. Hopefully, the WBC will help him get that bat going. Youk was also not my choice to replace A-Rod, but, if he plays and this new stance works, for one year, I'll deal with it. Hopefully David Adams rakes in the minors and replaces him next year. Hafner is a low risk signing and as long as he stays healthy, I hope he revitalizes himself and launches a few HRs. He should hopefully be better than Raul. Rivera and Diaz will play LF until Grandy is back and whoever is performing better will keep their roster spot. I believe Cervelli wins the catcher's job with his improved defense and his better bat and Gardner has been en fuego during Spring Training: let's hope it carries over. This offense is definitely going to be different and likely less productive, but fingers crossed.
Starting Rotation
SP CC Sabathia
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Andy Pettitte
SP Phil Hughes
SP Ivan Nova
Let me be briefer here: if they're healthy, they're fine. CC and Hiroki are great but just watch their workloads. Andy will get hurt at some point but they have David Phelps to step in. Hughes will try and put together a monster season for that nice $$ in free agency. Nova, according to Stewart, has a new arm slot which'll help his repetition and location. The 2011 Nova would be great. The young depth is nice and Pineda is back post AS break, so this rotation is enough to be solid contenders.
Bullpen
CL Mariano Rivera
SU David Robertson
SU Joba Chamberlain
SU Boone Logan
SU David Aardsma
LHS Clay Rapada
LR David Phelps
A very solid bullpen indeed. Mo's back and healthy and his arm is just fine, which is what matters. Robertson is an elite set-up man. Joba will look for that $$ as well, so he will want to produce, as will Boone Logan, also a FA, as is David Aardsma. Money motivates, that's for sure. Rapada reestablished himself as a quality lefty specialist and Phelps was solid as the swing man. He pitched to an ERA under 3 as a reliever. The Yankees have a ton of bullpen depth in the minors, particularly with Chase Whitley and top prospect Mark Montgomery on the way.
I'm thinking second place and a Wild Card birth is an order. I think Toronto's improved themselves to win the division if healthy but a lot of people are counting the Yankees out. It's important to realize the Yankees lost some important offense, but gained better role players and contact hitters while retaining the same bullpen and a rotation who could be better this year.
Kyle Lohse and the Yankees: A Marriage Made in Heaven?
For reasons completely related to Scott Boras and a MLBPA agreement, Kyle Lohse is still unsigned, the only 'marquee' FA that is still not on a team. So, the hot topic in the blogsophere is where he should sign. As a completely biased Yankees fan, I'm going to make the case why Mr. Lohse should consider shacking up in Trump Tower for the next three years. So, let's get right to it.
Background
You baseball nerds know Kyle Lohse's history: came up with the Twins, traded to the Reds, also went to the Phillies briefly and spent the last few seasons with the Cardinals. Lohse was pretty much garbage in Minnesota, and revitalized himself in St. Louis. Lohse is 34, so he's got a few years left in the tank, but not young. His agent is Scott Boras, which means he'll hold out for the best deal and often overvalues his clients. Lohse is also tied to draft pick compensation. The new MLBPA agreement does not divide between "Type A" and "Type B" compensation. Now, a team must offer compensation for a FA and if they decline it for free agency, the team gets a compensated 1st Round Draft Pick. So, Lohse declined it (looks bad in hindsight) and has a draft pick attached to him. If a team with one of the worst records in the league (1-10) signs Lohse, they do not lose the pick. (Thanks to Dayn Perry of CBS Sports for the info)
Why the Yankees are a fit
Background
You baseball nerds know Kyle Lohse's history: came up with the Twins, traded to the Reds, also went to the Phillies briefly and spent the last few seasons with the Cardinals. Lohse was pretty much garbage in Minnesota, and revitalized himself in St. Louis. Lohse is 34, so he's got a few years left in the tank, but not young. His agent is Scott Boras, which means he'll hold out for the best deal and often overvalues his clients. Lohse is also tied to draft pick compensation. The new MLBPA agreement does not divide between "Type A" and "Type B" compensation. Now, a team must offer compensation for a FA and if they decline it for free agency, the team gets a compensated 1st Round Draft Pick. So, Lohse declined it (looks bad in hindsight) and has a draft pick attached to him. If a team with one of the worst records in the league (1-10) signs Lohse, they do not lose the pick. (Thanks to Dayn Perry of CBS Sports for the info)
Why the Yankees are a fit
- Rotation Depth: The old baseball adage: You can never had enough starting pitching. Still applies here. The Yankees rotation will be better without Garcia and retains last year's rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova. Last year's swing man is also back, David Phelps. And Michael Pineda returns after the All-Star break. The AAA team also has youngsters Adam Warren, Brett Marshall and Vidal Nuno. Looks solid, right? Sure, but Kuroda and Nova are the only starters to pitch full seasons the last 2 years. Warren got killed in 1 MLB start and Marshall/Nuno do not have MLB experience. You can never have enough SP's, period.
- Injury: I referenced this. Is Sabathia breaking down? He is getting older and missed time. Kuroda's been incredibly durable in MLB. Pettitte hasn't pitched a full year since 2009. Hughes is injury prone. Pineda had shoulder surgery. This team is already injury prone and while Lohse isn't the pinnacle of health, he adds another arm.
- 2014: The rotation for 2014 that is signed right now? Only Sabathia and Nova of the starting 5. Pineda and Phelps probably move into the rotation, too. That's 4. The Yankees need another veteran. Kuroda and Pettitte might retire and Hughes will cost a lot of money as a FA (I say he goes between Edwin Jackson & Anibal Sanchez - 5 years/$65 Million). Lohse will probably pitch around the same stats and for 3 years, isn't a deal breaker.
What makes him a poor fit? Well, people don't trust St. Louis pitchers post-St. Louis. The track record is bad: their K rates decline, ground ball rates decline, fly ball rates go up, aka the Dave Duncan effect. Busch Stadium is in the middle/bottom of runs factor, i.e. it pitches more towards a pitchers park than a hitters park. The AL East is full of hitter's parks. And strong lefty hitters. I do feel Lohse has made himself a better pitcher. His BB rate is impeccable, but his WHIP is about average due to the hits he allows. Lohse is not a perfect solution. He's likely a 3.80/4.00 ERA type. But, for a middle of the rotation starter on a discount? He's worth the draft pick for a 3 year, $36 million deal. That draft pick is not going to make the MLB in that time. Lohse can help now. The Yankees have 2 1st round picks left if they use their other one 1st rounder on Lohse. So, why not? Take a shot.
Monday, March 4, 2013
30 Teams in 30 Days: Boston Red Sox
So, John Farrell's back, only this time he's fatter. Okay, this was a reference to Everybody Loves Raymond. Frank Barone's the man. Maybe it's just me, but I did not see the Red Sox' reason for bringing in Farrell. I understand the relationship he had with the pitching staff, but its not like Toronto was fantastic with him as a manager. Nevertheless, we saw some changes with the Red Sox this offseason. David Ross, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Dempster, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Shane Victorino were brought in as free agents. Acquired by trade was closer Joel Hanrahan, SS Brock Holt and OF/1B Mike Carp. So, give credit to GM Ben Cherington for bringing in some new blood. Will it all work out? Let's take a look to see.
Starting Lineup
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF Shane Victorino
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH David Ortiz
1B Mike Napoli
3B Will Middlebrooks
LF Mike Carp
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
SS Stephen Drew
So, because of position battles and injuries, we need to break this down a little bit. Ellsbury will take his place at the top of the lineup. Ellsbury gets hurt on even years (2010/2012) and stays healthy on odd years, so because it's a contract and odd year, he produces well this year. Or gets hurt again. Victorino is going to be a waste of money, the next JD Drew albatross. Why spend the $$ when Jackie Bradley is not too far away? He's going to be a disappointment. Pedroia will be fine if he stays healthy: he's an elite player. I think this will finally be the year Ortiz starts slowing down. He can be productive, but age is starting to be a huge factor in recovery time from injury. Napoli's hip is a big cause for concern. The lineup is much worse with Carp at 1st and Nava in left. Napoli's swing is as perfect for Fenway Park as anyone in the game (his career numbers there are very good). I like Middlebrooks, but he must improve his plate discipline or he's destined to be Mark Reynolds. I think Carp platoons with Gomes in left because he can hit some homers. Salty wins the catcher's job with Ross backing him up. I like Drew a lot, but that ankle still worries me, but Brock Holt can at least hit for average. There's some good hitters but injuries are just as bad, if not worse than Toronto's problems.
Starting Rotation
SP Jon Lester
SP Clay Buchholz
SP Felix Doubront
SP Ryan Dempster
SP John Lackey
Lester returns to form. He's too talented not to, so I'm not too worried about him. Buchholz has some talent but that back injury is worrisome. He looked much better post All-Star break, so hopefully, that's that Buchholz produces (3.76 ERA). Doubront, Dempster and Lackey all worry me. Doubront's inconsistency is big, but he strikes out guys. Dempster, I believe, will get hammered in the AL East. Lackey's return from TJS can go either way; he's in incredible shape, so hopefully it pays off. Franklin Morales provides depth, but this rotation's inconsistency worries me to place them high up in the division.
Bullpen
CL Joel Hanrahan
SU Andrew Bailey
SU Koji Uehara
SU Junichi Tazawa
LHS Craig Breslow
SU Daniel Bard
I like the depth for the bullpen: not listed are Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Clayton Mortensen, Chris Carpenter and Franklin Morales. Love the Hanrahan move, he's a good closer who should be fine in the AL East. Bailey should not have been worth Josh Reddick (Cherington blew that one). Like the Uehara pickup a lot, as well as bringing Breslow back. The depth here is key, if someone stinks, Farrell can get rid of them. Much better than last year.
I think Boston finishes 4th. That rotation worries me for now, as well as injuries in the lineup. They'll be much improved over last year, and it would not surprise me if they make a run, but for now, it's 4th place.
Starting Lineup
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF Shane Victorino
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH David Ortiz
1B Mike Napoli
3B Will Middlebrooks
LF Mike Carp
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
SS Stephen Drew
So, because of position battles and injuries, we need to break this down a little bit. Ellsbury will take his place at the top of the lineup. Ellsbury gets hurt on even years (2010/2012) and stays healthy on odd years, so because it's a contract and odd year, he produces well this year. Or gets hurt again. Victorino is going to be a waste of money, the next JD Drew albatross. Why spend the $$ when Jackie Bradley is not too far away? He's going to be a disappointment. Pedroia will be fine if he stays healthy: he's an elite player. I think this will finally be the year Ortiz starts slowing down. He can be productive, but age is starting to be a huge factor in recovery time from injury. Napoli's hip is a big cause for concern. The lineup is much worse with Carp at 1st and Nava in left. Napoli's swing is as perfect for Fenway Park as anyone in the game (his career numbers there are very good). I like Middlebrooks, but he must improve his plate discipline or he's destined to be Mark Reynolds. I think Carp platoons with Gomes in left because he can hit some homers. Salty wins the catcher's job with Ross backing him up. I like Drew a lot, but that ankle still worries me, but Brock Holt can at least hit for average. There's some good hitters but injuries are just as bad, if not worse than Toronto's problems.
Starting Rotation
SP Jon Lester
SP Clay Buchholz
SP Felix Doubront
SP Ryan Dempster
SP John Lackey
Lester returns to form. He's too talented not to, so I'm not too worried about him. Buchholz has some talent but that back injury is worrisome. He looked much better post All-Star break, so hopefully, that's that Buchholz produces (3.76 ERA). Doubront, Dempster and Lackey all worry me. Doubront's inconsistency is big, but he strikes out guys. Dempster, I believe, will get hammered in the AL East. Lackey's return from TJS can go either way; he's in incredible shape, so hopefully it pays off. Franklin Morales provides depth, but this rotation's inconsistency worries me to place them high up in the division.
Bullpen
CL Joel Hanrahan
SU Andrew Bailey
SU Koji Uehara
SU Junichi Tazawa
LHS Craig Breslow
SU Daniel Bard
I like the depth for the bullpen: not listed are Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Clayton Mortensen, Chris Carpenter and Franklin Morales. Love the Hanrahan move, he's a good closer who should be fine in the AL East. Bailey should not have been worth Josh Reddick (Cherington blew that one). Like the Uehara pickup a lot, as well as bringing Breslow back. The depth here is key, if someone stinks, Farrell can get rid of them. Much better than last year.
I think Boston finishes 4th. That rotation worries me for now, as well as injuries in the lineup. They'll be much improved over last year, and it would not surprise me if they make a run, but for now, it's 4th place.
Sunday, March 3, 2013
30 Teams in 30 Days: Toronto Blue Jays
So, the Blue Jays acquired Josh Thole and signed Mark DeRosa this off-season. Kinda quiet. That's only when you exclude the fact they also brought in an insane amount of minor league free agents as well. They brought in: Maicer Izturis, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonafacio, Melky Cabrera, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, and NL Cy Young Winner RA Dickey. Alex Anthropoulos wins GM of the Year, by a mile. Even if this all blows up in his face, he still wins. So, does Toronto have enough to win the division? I think they just might. Let's take a look:
Starting Lineup
SS Jose Reyes
LF Melky Cabrera
RF Jose Bautista
DH Edwin Encarnacion
3B Brett Lawrie
1B Adam Lind
CF Colby Rasmus
C JP Arencibia
2B Emilio Bonafacio
This lineup can do some damage. Why? They have an almost perfect variety of hitters. Reyes can be an elite leadoff hitter who has decent power for a leadoff type. And he stayed healthy! (Sarcasm at its finest). Which Melky shows up? The 2010 Melky or the 2012 Melky? I do not buy the Melky of the last 2 years, as a Yankees fan, but maybe he'll prove me wrong. Bautista and Encarnacion are going to hit at least 40 HR's combined, healthy. I'm a big Lawrie fan; this might be his year, again, if he stays healthy. Lind needs to pick it up or he'll be replaced by David Cooper: he's got the talent, but the last few seasons have been tough to watch. Rasmus is garbage. Arencibia's got some legit power, as well. Trading d'Arnaud gives him some piece of mind and clearly the catcher's role. Bonafacio, presuming he beats Izturis, can be a great asset in the 9 hole. Health is the key: it was the downfall last year, and might be this year.
Starting Rotation
SP RA Dickey
SP Brandon Morrow
SP Mark Buerhle
SP Josh Johnson
SP Ricky Romero
The last few seasons' opening day starter is now the #5. That shows how improved this rotation is. Dickey's knuckler is nearly impossible to hit; he'll be fine in Toronto. Buerhle is a great veteran starter for the middle of the rotation. Johnson can be electric; he stayed healthy and finally pitched better in the 2nd half of last year - let's hope it carries over. I'm also a big Morrow fan; he made some adjustments to pitch more like a pitcher and not a strikeout machine. Translation? He's more effective. Romero was just off last year. I'm sure he found what was wrong with his mechanics to be a solid pitcher. I like this rotation's potential a lot; again, injuries are important here, particularly with Morrow and Johnson.
Bullpen
CL Casey Janssen
SU Sergio Santos
SU Steve Delabar
SU Esmil Rogers
SU Brad Lincoln
LR Brett Cecil/JA Happ
To end the Florio crushfest, Casey Janssen is also on the all-Florio team. He stepped in at closer and was fantastic. I can't see why he wouldn't repeat last year's success. Santos can also close: he's got electric stuff and back from injury. Anthropoulos found some amazing scrap heap pickups in Delabar, Rogers and Lincoln via trades. Delabar came in for Eric Thames (who might just be reacquired: I don't think he makes the Mariners), Rogers for Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles and Lincoln for Travis Snider. So, a remade bullpen for backups? Nice job, Alex. Rogers and Lincoln as converted starters are much more suited for the bullpen. Cecil and Happ battle Romero for the #5/Long Man spots. Another good pen.
I think Toronto wins it on paper. On injuries, they'll lose. But, bringing in some more, healthier players, will help. Their biggest downside might not be injuries, it might be new, albeit former manager, John Gibbons. He's had rocky relationships with players before. But for now, Toronto wins for now in the AL East.
Starting Lineup
SS Jose Reyes
LF Melky Cabrera
RF Jose Bautista
DH Edwin Encarnacion
3B Brett Lawrie
1B Adam Lind
CF Colby Rasmus
C JP Arencibia
2B Emilio Bonafacio
This lineup can do some damage. Why? They have an almost perfect variety of hitters. Reyes can be an elite leadoff hitter who has decent power for a leadoff type. And he stayed healthy! (Sarcasm at its finest). Which Melky shows up? The 2010 Melky or the 2012 Melky? I do not buy the Melky of the last 2 years, as a Yankees fan, but maybe he'll prove me wrong. Bautista and Encarnacion are going to hit at least 40 HR's combined, healthy. I'm a big Lawrie fan; this might be his year, again, if he stays healthy. Lind needs to pick it up or he'll be replaced by David Cooper: he's got the talent, but the last few seasons have been tough to watch. Rasmus is garbage. Arencibia's got some legit power, as well. Trading d'Arnaud gives him some piece of mind and clearly the catcher's role. Bonafacio, presuming he beats Izturis, can be a great asset in the 9 hole. Health is the key: it was the downfall last year, and might be this year.
Starting Rotation
SP RA Dickey
SP Brandon Morrow
SP Mark Buerhle
SP Josh Johnson
SP Ricky Romero
The last few seasons' opening day starter is now the #5. That shows how improved this rotation is. Dickey's knuckler is nearly impossible to hit; he'll be fine in Toronto. Buerhle is a great veteran starter for the middle of the rotation. Johnson can be electric; he stayed healthy and finally pitched better in the 2nd half of last year - let's hope it carries over. I'm also a big Morrow fan; he made some adjustments to pitch more like a pitcher and not a strikeout machine. Translation? He's more effective. Romero was just off last year. I'm sure he found what was wrong with his mechanics to be a solid pitcher. I like this rotation's potential a lot; again, injuries are important here, particularly with Morrow and Johnson.
Bullpen
CL Casey Janssen
SU Sergio Santos
SU Steve Delabar
SU Esmil Rogers
SU Brad Lincoln
LR Brett Cecil/JA Happ
To end the Florio crushfest, Casey Janssen is also on the all-Florio team. He stepped in at closer and was fantastic. I can't see why he wouldn't repeat last year's success. Santos can also close: he's got electric stuff and back from injury. Anthropoulos found some amazing scrap heap pickups in Delabar, Rogers and Lincoln via trades. Delabar came in for Eric Thames (who might just be reacquired: I don't think he makes the Mariners), Rogers for Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles and Lincoln for Travis Snider. So, a remade bullpen for backups? Nice job, Alex. Rogers and Lincoln as converted starters are much more suited for the bullpen. Cecil and Happ battle Romero for the #5/Long Man spots. Another good pen.
I think Toronto wins it on paper. On injuries, they'll lose. But, bringing in some more, healthier players, will help. Their biggest downside might not be injuries, it might be new, albeit former manager, John Gibbons. He's had rocky relationships with players before. But for now, Toronto wins for now in the AL East.
Saturday, March 2, 2013
30 Teams in 30 Days: Tampa Bay Rays
Fernando Rodney put together a record setting year. He had the lowest ERA of any pitcher ever for a single season at 0.60. He lowered his walk rate, increased his strikeout rate and closed 48 games. That's not happening again. I'm saying his ERA quadruples to a whopping 2.40, which is still great. The Tampa Bay Rays seem to make some sort of splash, and GM Andrew Friedman did so again, shipping out Wade Davis, James Shields and a prospect in 2 trades for Yunel Escobar, and propects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery. Not too bad. Tampa finished third last year, and I'm predicting that again. Let's take a look:
Starting Lineup
CF Desmond Jennings
SS Yunel Escobar
RF Ben Zobrist
3B Evan Longoria
LF Matt Joyce
DH Luke Scott
1B James Loney
2B Kelly Johnson
C Jose Molina
On paper, better than in the last few years. I like Jennings a lot: he's got a lot to offer as a hitter and he should be fine defensively in CF. But, last year was a pretty bad setback. He should (and must) step it up moving forward. Escobar adds a solid AVG guy to the top of the lineup and will not strike out a ton, as long as he and Luke Scott aren't jerks in the clubhouse. I don't understand the Scott signing; he's been pretty bad the last 2 seasons and will probably be bumped once Wil Myers gets promoted. I'm personally not a Zobrist fan, I don't understand the big deal about him, what's so great? In terms of positional flexibility, he's a perfect Maddon-ite. I do like Longo and Joyce. I think Joyce gets a little closer to 2011 than 2012 and Longo will produce when he plays: he's an elite player. I'm worried about the bottom of the lineup. Loney is the epitome of how not to improve with each year; maybe he has something left. Johnson has turned himself into an Adam Dunn type: three true outcomes of BB/K/HR. And Molina can't hit. This lineup can be exploited for sure.
Starting Rotation
SP David Price
SP Jeremy Hellickson
SP Matt Moore
SP Jeff Niemann
SP Alex Cobb
I think it would be a smart idea to trade Niemann (there was a Colorado/Tampa trade rumor at one point) because they have so much depth here. Price is a perennial Cy Young candidate. Hellickson stepped it up in the second half but he needs to work into games more. Moore was a slight disappointment as a rookie, but if the second half of 2012 is an indicator, he'll pitch closer to a 3 ERA than 4. Cobb is a solid back-end starter. It might be a smart idea to trade Niemann and free up a spot for Chris Archer: he's another strikeout type. This is a great rotation, young and talented with depth.
Bullpen
CL Fernando Rodney
SU Kyle Farnsworth
SU Joel Peralta
SU Jake McGee
SU Cesar Ramos
SU Brandon Gomes
I'm a little skeptical about this bullpen's performance. All of these relievers have been maddeningly inconsistent in years past. Sure, Rodney, Peralta and McGee were exceptional, but it's the exception, not the norm. I would expect more of the norm, not the exception.
I'm saying this is a 3rd place team in a competitive division. This rotation is certainly fantastic, but I'm worried about the lineup and bullpen. It's just enough to keep them out of the playoffs.
Starting Lineup
CF Desmond Jennings
SS Yunel Escobar
RF Ben Zobrist
3B Evan Longoria
LF Matt Joyce
DH Luke Scott
1B James Loney
2B Kelly Johnson
C Jose Molina
On paper, better than in the last few years. I like Jennings a lot: he's got a lot to offer as a hitter and he should be fine defensively in CF. But, last year was a pretty bad setback. He should (and must) step it up moving forward. Escobar adds a solid AVG guy to the top of the lineup and will not strike out a ton, as long as he and Luke Scott aren't jerks in the clubhouse. I don't understand the Scott signing; he's been pretty bad the last 2 seasons and will probably be bumped once Wil Myers gets promoted. I'm personally not a Zobrist fan, I don't understand the big deal about him, what's so great? In terms of positional flexibility, he's a perfect Maddon-ite. I do like Longo and Joyce. I think Joyce gets a little closer to 2011 than 2012 and Longo will produce when he plays: he's an elite player. I'm worried about the bottom of the lineup. Loney is the epitome of how not to improve with each year; maybe he has something left. Johnson has turned himself into an Adam Dunn type: three true outcomes of BB/K/HR. And Molina can't hit. This lineup can be exploited for sure.
Starting Rotation
SP David Price
SP Jeremy Hellickson
SP Matt Moore
SP Jeff Niemann
SP Alex Cobb
I think it would be a smart idea to trade Niemann (there was a Colorado/Tampa trade rumor at one point) because they have so much depth here. Price is a perennial Cy Young candidate. Hellickson stepped it up in the second half but he needs to work into games more. Moore was a slight disappointment as a rookie, but if the second half of 2012 is an indicator, he'll pitch closer to a 3 ERA than 4. Cobb is a solid back-end starter. It might be a smart idea to trade Niemann and free up a spot for Chris Archer: he's another strikeout type. This is a great rotation, young and talented with depth.
Bullpen
CL Fernando Rodney
SU Kyle Farnsworth
SU Joel Peralta
SU Jake McGee
SU Cesar Ramos
SU Brandon Gomes
I'm a little skeptical about this bullpen's performance. All of these relievers have been maddeningly inconsistent in years past. Sure, Rodney, Peralta and McGee were exceptional, but it's the exception, not the norm. I would expect more of the norm, not the exception.
I'm saying this is a 3rd place team in a competitive division. This rotation is certainly fantastic, but I'm worried about the lineup and bullpen. It's just enough to keep them out of the playoffs.
Friday, March 1, 2013
30 Teams in 30 Days: Baltimore Orioles
We're entering the home stretch, folks. So far, we have examined 5 of the 6 MLB divisions. My predictions so far:
NL East: Washington
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: Los Angeles
NL Wild Card: Cincinnati vs. Atlanta
AL West: Oakland
AL Central: Detroit
We finally reach the AL East. Time for some serious negative feedback. Last year, the Orioles surprised most of baseball by not only securing a 93 win season, but a Wild Card birth, winning the 1 game play in and beating the Yankees to get to the ALCS. Lots of improvements were made on the offense, but the pitching staff looked vastly better after changeover from 2011. So, can Baltimore repeat? No. See why:
Starting Lineup
RF Nick Markakis
SS JJ Hardy
CF Adam Jones
C Matt Wieters
1B Chris Davis
3B Manny Machado
LF Nolan Reimold
DH Wilson Betemit
2B Brian Roberts
Again, getting creative with a lineup here. Markakis is more suited to the 3 hole, but look at these stats: in about half the games last year he batted 1st and put up this stat line: .335/5 HR/28 RBI with an OPS nearly .100 points higher. Hits AVG drops to .256 in the 3 hole. If it works, don't mess with it, right? I like Hardy and Wieters to rebound in the batting average departments, getting closer to the .270 range more expected from them. Jones has turned himself into the superstar the Orioles expected from him: he'll produce a similar season again. I feel like Davis will continue to get exposed: I buy the power like everyone else, but his plate discipline will keep him closer to Adam Dunn than Joey Votto at the plate. Now, I have concerns about the bottom of the lineup. Machado is talented enough to move to the next level, but we should see a full season from him before anointing him the next superstar slugger. Reimold is very talented, but he can't stay healthy. I'd rather see him over Nate McLouth's awfulness. Betemit should produce close to last year and who knows what happens at 2B. Lots of things need to go right, but plate discipline, consistency and injuries still allude their success.
Starting Rotation
SP Jason Hammel
SP Wei-Yin Chen
SP Miguel Gonzalez
SP Chris Tillman
SP Steve Johnson
I'm not buying this rotation 1 iota. Simply put, Hammel and Chen are 3-4 starters on average teams. They put together good seasons, and I think Chen can be a solid starter, but Hammel will likely revert to his 09-10 form. Is anyone buying Miguel Gonzalez? Hell no. Can you say flash in the pan? I can. Flash in the pan. Steve Johnson's minor league record suggests he's also going to revert closer to a 4 ERA. Positives? I think Chris Tillman put it all together. I also hold out hope Jake Arrieta puts it together: he's got electric stuff if he can harness it. Matusz and Britton would be better in the pen. They do have 2 great pitching prospects in Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, but until they replace Gonzalez and Johnson and perform, I'm not buying this rotation.
Bullpen
CL Jim Johnson
SU Pedro Strop
SU Luis Ayala
SU Darren O'Day
LHS Troy Patton
SU Brian Matusz
I do like this bullpen a lot, though. I am admittedly a huge Jim Johnson fan and he was fantastic as a closer. Strop and Ayala were solid 7-8 guys and O'Day put it all together. I like Patton and Matusz out of the bullpen a lot. Baltimore has had success moving guys to the pen from the rotation, I think it happens again. I do not any qualms with this part of the team, but the bullpen loses more games than wins them.
Baltimore, for a 93 win team, had only a +7 run differential.....over the whole season. AND, that's because they went on a tear in September to make the playoffs. A lot of luck went into this team, including a record setting W-L record in 1 run games, which means the offense is good, the bullpen is good and the starting pitching stinks. If your starting pitching stinks, you go nowhere. I think the other teams are better, period. Baltimore is competitive, but a 5th place team this year.
NL East: Washington
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: Los Angeles
NL Wild Card: Cincinnati vs. Atlanta
AL West: Oakland
AL Central: Detroit
We finally reach the AL East. Time for some serious negative feedback. Last year, the Orioles surprised most of baseball by not only securing a 93 win season, but a Wild Card birth, winning the 1 game play in and beating the Yankees to get to the ALCS. Lots of improvements were made on the offense, but the pitching staff looked vastly better after changeover from 2011. So, can Baltimore repeat? No. See why:
Starting Lineup
RF Nick Markakis
SS JJ Hardy
CF Adam Jones
C Matt Wieters
1B Chris Davis
3B Manny Machado
LF Nolan Reimold
DH Wilson Betemit
2B Brian Roberts
Again, getting creative with a lineup here. Markakis is more suited to the 3 hole, but look at these stats: in about half the games last year he batted 1st and put up this stat line: .335/5 HR/28 RBI with an OPS nearly .100 points higher. Hits AVG drops to .256 in the 3 hole. If it works, don't mess with it, right? I like Hardy and Wieters to rebound in the batting average departments, getting closer to the .270 range more expected from them. Jones has turned himself into the superstar the Orioles expected from him: he'll produce a similar season again. I feel like Davis will continue to get exposed: I buy the power like everyone else, but his plate discipline will keep him closer to Adam Dunn than Joey Votto at the plate. Now, I have concerns about the bottom of the lineup. Machado is talented enough to move to the next level, but we should see a full season from him before anointing him the next superstar slugger. Reimold is very talented, but he can't stay healthy. I'd rather see him over Nate McLouth's awfulness. Betemit should produce close to last year and who knows what happens at 2B. Lots of things need to go right, but plate discipline, consistency and injuries still allude their success.
Starting Rotation
SP Jason Hammel
SP Wei-Yin Chen
SP Miguel Gonzalez
SP Chris Tillman
SP Steve Johnson
I'm not buying this rotation 1 iota. Simply put, Hammel and Chen are 3-4 starters on average teams. They put together good seasons, and I think Chen can be a solid starter, but Hammel will likely revert to his 09-10 form. Is anyone buying Miguel Gonzalez? Hell no. Can you say flash in the pan? I can. Flash in the pan. Steve Johnson's minor league record suggests he's also going to revert closer to a 4 ERA. Positives? I think Chris Tillman put it all together. I also hold out hope Jake Arrieta puts it together: he's got electric stuff if he can harness it. Matusz and Britton would be better in the pen. They do have 2 great pitching prospects in Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, but until they replace Gonzalez and Johnson and perform, I'm not buying this rotation.
Bullpen
CL Jim Johnson
SU Pedro Strop
SU Luis Ayala
SU Darren O'Day
LHS Troy Patton
SU Brian Matusz
I do like this bullpen a lot, though. I am admittedly a huge Jim Johnson fan and he was fantastic as a closer. Strop and Ayala were solid 7-8 guys and O'Day put it all together. I like Patton and Matusz out of the bullpen a lot. Baltimore has had success moving guys to the pen from the rotation, I think it happens again. I do not any qualms with this part of the team, but the bullpen loses more games than wins them.
Baltimore, for a 93 win team, had only a +7 run differential.....over the whole season. AND, that's because they went on a tear in September to make the playoffs. A lot of luck went into this team, including a record setting W-L record in 1 run games, which means the offense is good, the bullpen is good and the starting pitching stinks. If your starting pitching stinks, you go nowhere. I think the other teams are better, period. Baltimore is competitive, but a 5th place team this year.
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